HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area ABQ

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 12:22:59 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
343 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MODERATE CONFIDENCE WINTER STORM SCENARIO IS TAKING SHAPE 
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. THE 
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS SHOW A DOUBLE BARREL MID AND UPPER 
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN CA NORTH 
INTO SOUTHERN NV. THIS STRUCTURE COMPLICATES MATTERS AS 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT HANDLE RESOLUTION OF THIS VERY WELL. MEANWHILE 
THERE IS A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH ENHANCED 
UPSLOPE FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NE
HIGHLANDS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BREAK OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS AS INCREASINGLY MOIST MID AND UPPER FLOW 
SLIDES UP AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL BNDRY. OROGRAPHICS AND UPPER DIV
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW MTS BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF KEY
FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS OPENS THE UPPER LOW AND SHEARS
IT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS SE NM WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
FROM SE CATRON COUNTY ENE ACROSS SOCORRO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...
WHILE THE NAM HAS THE SHEARED WAVE FRONTOGENESIS MUCH FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE I40 CORRIDOR. EITHER WAY QPF WITH BOTH SCENARIOS
IS HEALTHY. SIDED WITH THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH HPC AND THE
00Z ECMWF. WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
DYNAMICS IS ALSO MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACCUMS. COMBO OF LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...STRONG FRONTOGENESIS...AND UPPER FLOW IS
IMPRESSIVE OVER THE SACS AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES WHICH COULD
CREATE SNOW BIG AMOUNTS FOR THAT AREA. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
MATTERS MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY SHEARED WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND FORCE IT SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY THROW A WRENCH INTO THE MIX AND THUS LOWERS
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN PRECIP WILL END. RAISED POPS FOR THE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FOR LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

GUYER

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER 
SYSTEM. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...OR AROUND 14Z TO 15Z...LOW CLOUDS 
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN 
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE AREA EAST OF THE SANGRE DE 
CRISTO MOUNTAIN INCLUDING KRTN... KLVS AND POSSIBLY KCAO. OTHERWISE 
MVFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THROUGH 00Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS 
DETERIORATE FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTH THEN THE SOUTHEAST IN A RAIN SNOW 
MIX THAT WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. 
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AND 
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. 

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 05

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR BRIEF BREAK IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL LAST THROUGH MID DAY TODAY 
WITH MODEST WARMING WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL 
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER 
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO MODERATE 
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE 
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. VENTILATION TODAY TO BE BEST ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWEST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY GOOD VALUES ELSEWHERE. 
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN THIS 
AFTERNOON THEN EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ZONES LATER 
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO. VENTILATION TO DECREASE MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY...WITH GOOD TO 
VERY GOOD VENTILATION LIMITED TO THE WEST AND MOSTLY POOR ELSEWHERE. 
TEMPERATURES DECREASE AS WELL...REMAINING 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL VALUES ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

MODELS STILL STRUGGLE TO AGREE ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM 
BUT CURRENT GRIDS END THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE 
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO 
SATURDAY BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY 
MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 
GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN STEADILY ON SUNDAY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 
DEVELOP ALL ZONES. PRECIPITATION TO MOVE FIRST INTO THE NORTHWEST 
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH.  VENTILATION TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT 
ALL ZONES. 

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK WITH EXTENDED 
MODELS ALL SHOWING YET ANOTHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE STATE...THOUGH 
DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. 

05

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  50  23  48  22 /   5   5   0   0 
DULCE...........................  45  15  43  15 /   5   5   0   5 
CUBA............................  46  19  44  20 /   5   5   0  10 
GALLUP..........................  45  21  46  17 /  10  10   0   0 
EL MORRO........................  41  22  41  18 /  10  10   5   0 
GRANTS..........................  45  24  43  20 /   5   5   5   0 
QUEMADO.........................  42  25  43  19 /  10  20  10   0 
GLENWOOD........................  53  27  53  21 /   5  20  20   0 
CHAMA...........................  41  16  39  14 /  10  10   5  20 
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  25  42  25 /   5   5   5  20 
PECOS...........................  40  26  40  25 /   5   5  20  40 
CERRO/QUESTA....................  42  14  40  13 /   5   5   5  20 
RED RIVER.......................  37  14  35  14 /   5   5  10  40 
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  15  38  14 /   5   5  10  50 
TAOS............................  41  18  42  19 /   5   5   5  20 
MORA............................  40  21  40  20 /   0   0  20  40 
ESPANOLA........................  51  25  50  24 /   0   0  10  10 
SANTA FE........................  42  28  43  27 /   0   0  10  30 
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  47  26  46  24 /   0   0  10  20 
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  31  46  28 /   0   5  10  20 
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  49  32  49  30 /   0   5  10  10 
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  52  31  51  29 /   0   5  10  10 
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  52  31  52  29 /   0   0  10  10 
LOS LUNAS.......................  54  30  52  26 /   0   5  10  10 
RIO RANCHO......................  51  30  50  29 /   0   0  10  20 
SOCORRO.........................  57  32  54  29 /   0  20  20   5 
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  29  44  23 /   5  20  30  40 
TIJERAS.........................  49  30  48  25 /   0  20  20  30 
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44  29  45  23 /   5  20  30  30 
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  28  41  23 /   0  30  30  40 
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  48  30  46  25 /   5  40  40  30 
CARRIZOZO.......................  54  31  48  26 /   0  50  50  30 
RUIDOSO.........................  45  29  38  24 /   5  70  70  40 
CAPULIN.........................  44  22  41  21 /   0   0  10  50 
RATON...........................  50  21  47  21 /   0   0  10  40 
SPRINGER........................  49  23  46  23 /   0   0  10  40 
LAS VEGAS.......................  44  25  43  22 /   0   5  20  40 
CLAYTON.........................  48  28  45  25 /   0   5  30  50 
ROY.............................  46  28  43  26 /   0  10  20  50 
CONCHAS.........................  52  32  46  30 /   5  10  30  40 
SANTA ROSA......................  52  32  44  30 /   5  20  40  40 
TUCUMCARI.......................  53  33  43  29 /   5  30  50  50 
CLOVIS..........................  52  33  42  30 /  10  60  60  40 
PORTALES........................  54  35  43  31 /  10  60  60  40 
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  33  45  30 /   5  50  60  40 
ROSWELL.........................  55  35  46  32 /   5  60  60  40 
PICACHO.........................  49  31  42  28 /   5  70  70  40 
ELK.............................  47  30  40  26 /   5  70  70  50 

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ508-524-526-539-540.