HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area ABR

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 06:24:16 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1125 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 6Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN PRESSURE SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SWATH OF SNOW THAT ACCUMULATED
EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IS ERODING
RAPIDLY.

ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY IS IN STORE FOR
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S DUE TO A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND WAA AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LACKING
HOWEVER...AND LOOKS TO INHIBIT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RELATIVE TO THURSDAY...BUT WILL STILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER OUR REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING BUILDING
EASTWARD WITH SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS SHOULD BRING
WARM AND DRY DAYS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE PERIOD THEN GETS MORE INTERESTING AS
THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
AREA COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US WITH MUCH
OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH. THE EC...GFS AND GEM THEN ALL SHOW A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST CO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM WERE WEAKER AND QUICKER WITH THIS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE EC WAS STRONGER AND SLOWER ALONG WITH
BRINGING MORE QPF INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BACKED
OFF ON POPS SOME ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEPT GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST OF THE GROUND BARE UP
THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND ANY SNOWFALL THAT OCCURS. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT IT ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.