HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area AFC

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 05:24:11 GMT
FXAK68 PAFC 152148
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOWING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CONSENSUS AND
DIVERGENCE DEPENDING ON WEATHER SYSTEM AND TIME.  THE GFS...NAM...EC
SOLUTION FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SYSTEM IS PRETTY GOOD THROUGH 36
HOURS AND THEN SOME DIVERGENCE AS SECONDARY LOW FORMS IN BRISTOL BAY
ON THU.  THESE MODELS ALSO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI EVENING AROUND 972 MB.  SERIOUS
DIVERGENCE OCCURS IN THE GULF FIRST WITH WEAKER SYSTEM EARLY FRI. 
THE GFS AND EC KEEP LOW IN BRISTOL BAY LATE THU NIGHT WHILE THE NAM
ELONGATES INTO THE WESTERN GULF...WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
MARINE WINDS FRI IN THE WESTERN GULF.  NIGHT SHIFT WENT WITH THE EC
AND DAY SHIFT IN EAST DOMAIN IS GOING WITH EC AS WELL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS MORNING WE EXPERIENCED FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG A BROAD SWATH FROM KUSKO DELTA EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTH GULF COAST.  AIR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT
PLENTY OF WIND AND SNOW MADE FOR BLIZZARD OR LOW VIZ CONDITIONS IN A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.  SHOW SHOULD BE TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH A STEADY DECREASE IN EAST
WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST ZONES SHOULD BE BECOMING ISOLATED
LATER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH MODEST EAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...PERSISTENT SNOW ALONG THE COAST TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. INLAND AREAS COULD RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO. LOOKS AS YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES OVER KODIAK THU AND ONSHORE OVER KENAI PEN LATE THU AFTERNOON. 
WOULD EXPECT SNOW ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME MODERATE EAST WINDS
BEGINNING THU EVENING...LITTLE PRECIP MAKING IT OVER THE MTNS
HOWEVER.

SOUTHWEST...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW ON THU OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EAST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AGAIN
THU MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT.

BERING REGION...EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW SHOULD SLOWLY FILL THU AND MOVE
TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS WHILE A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD KODIAK
ISLAND THU MORNING. CONTINUED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH AK PEN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN
CENTRAL AL BY THU AFTERNOON. NEXT FRONT AND STORM MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN AL THU AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT SOME E TO NE WINDS WITH THIS
FRONT THU NIGHT.  WOULD ALSO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ONCE AGAIN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP
SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS.  MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD
BE THE ONE THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AL ON THU...IT PERSISTS IN A
WEAKENED STATE OVER THE BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM TRACK OVER
THE GULF IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUN WITH
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF SUN PM. IN
OTHER WORDS EXPECT NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ IN 125 THROUGH 4 PM
MARINE...GALES 150 155 170 171 172 175 176 185 132 130 138 140 120
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP FEB 12