HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area AFG

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 06:38:03 GMT
FXAK69 PAFG 152322
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
222 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 78 HOURS THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MINOR ISSUES WITH POSITIONS AND HEIGHTS.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER DUTCH HARBOR WILL DRIFT NORTH
OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THEN SPLIT WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY MOVING
EAST TO NEAR SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THE REMAINDER
MOVING TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR. THE LOW NEAR SAND
POINT MOVES NORTHEAST TO BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOW NORTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR DISSIPATES. A 492 DAM LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN NEAR ADAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND
BY SUNDAY MORNING. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAKENING
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT.

SURFACE...A 953 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI WILL MOVE TO NEAR
DUTCH HARBOR AS A 966 MB LOW THIS EVENING...THEN SPLIT WITH A 975
MB LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA AND A 981 MB LOW MOVING TO
WESTERN KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE 975 MB LOW THEN
DISSIPATES WHILE THE 981 MB LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH INTO
BRISTOL BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 980 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE TO NEAR SHEMYA AS A 974 MB LOW ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE BERING
SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MEANS A GENERALLY CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE MAINLAND BUT
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES IN OUR AREA. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE RANGE WILL HELP
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST...GENERALLY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ARCTIC WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FLURRIES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TIMING AND EXTENT WILL BE THE
FORECAST CONUNDRUM SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

WEST COAST...DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW OR FLURRIES TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH FOR SOME OF THE AREAS. A SLIGHT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLURRIES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONES
AS TIME GOES ON. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS EVENING WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

INTERIOR...WEAK CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW OR FLURRIES TONIGHT BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.