HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area AKQ

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 06:41:18 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1255 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET WX CONTG THROUGH THE OVRNGT HRS. CLDNS...MNLY HI
LVL...SPREADING INTO THE RGN FM THE W. MINOR ADJSMNTS MADE TO CLDS
AND HRLY/MINT...WHL LLVL WNDS BCM SE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION THU TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THRU THE OH
VALLEY. THE LOW CENTER WILL PULL NE INTO SE CANADA WHILE DRAGGING
A COLD FRNT TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. AHEAD OF THE
FRNT...WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN WILL COMMENCE FROM W TO E
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT OF THE SW. A MAIN
SLUG OF RAIN (80% POPS) WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN AS A TRIPLE POINT
LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRNT. ONLY EXPECTING ABOUT A
QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP STAYING OFF TO THE N (BETTER UPPER FORCING) AND S
(BETTER CONVECTIVE THREAT). CONDITIONS CLR OUT THU NIGHT AS SFC HI
PRES QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE W. FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE DUE
TO DECREASING CLOUDS...DIMINISHING WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE M30S-L40S.

TRANQUIL WX FRI WITH BROAD HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE M-U50S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.
DRY WX ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT AS A DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRAVERSES
THE SE U.S. ASIDE FROM THE FASTER GFS...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
ANY RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LATEST (12Z) GFS LUKS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO THE LO PRES AREA AFFECTING THE 
REGION SAT EVENG THRU SUN EVENG. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZATION 
ERRORS AND THUS TRACKS LO PRES AREA FARTHER N AND RIGHT ACRS OUR 
FCST AREA. SO...HAVE GONE CLS TO THE LATEST (12Z) ECMWF WHICH HAS 
REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LO MOVNG FM THE 
GULF OF MEXICO SAT MORNG...ENE AND OFF THE SRN MID ATLC/SE CST 
DURING SUN WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE LO WILL THEN CONTINUE OUT TO SEA 
SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS (FOR RAIN) EVERYWHERE 
SAT EVENG INTO SUN EVENG...AND NOW MENTIONING LIKELY POPS ACRS EXTRM 
SE VA/NE NC FOR LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN EVENG. POPS DECREASING TO CHC 
(30) AS YOU GO NWRD INTO CNTRL VA OVR TO LWR MD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES 
AWAY OUT TO SEA SUN EVENG/NGT...COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FM THE N 
BEHIND THE LO...CUD CHANGE THE RAIN TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS OR JUST SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME...IT 
STILL LUKS AS IF THIS LO PRES SYSTEM MOVES TOO QUICKLY IN THE SRN 
STREAM AND OUT TO SEA TO ALLOW FOR ANY COLD AIR (LACK OF HI PRES TO 
THE N) TO BE IN PLACE FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO 
OCCUR. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR MON INTO  
TUE...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST TUE AFTN/NGT. A COLD FRNT WILL 
APPROACH AND MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE WED...BRINGING A CHC OF 
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. 

MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...IN THE UPR 
20S TO MID 30S MON AND TUE MORNGS...AND IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S 
WED MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SUN AND 
MON...RANGING THRU THE 50S TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S 
WED.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT NEXT 12 HRS AS HIGH / MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AIRMASS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOISTEN UP AS
CIGS DROP TO BETWEEN 5-7K FT AFTER 18Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING. LATEST MODELS CONT TO SHOW BEST CHCS FOR STEADY PRECIP
ALONG WITH IFR-MVFR CIGS BTWN 21-03Z IN RAIN/FOG. SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVES E BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT ENUF LOW LVL MOISTURE
SEEN IN TSCTNS TO KEEP A STRATUS DECK ALONG WITH AREAS OF BR.

VFR AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PCPN AND AREAS OF IFR
ARE RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IMPROVING CONTITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR/DRY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY.

.MARINE...
LIGHT E-SE WIND THROUGH 12Z. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
MARINE AREA THU AFTN AND WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY S AND INCREASE
BY LATE AFTN/EVENING AS A FRONT APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME NO SCA
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...NW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS 
OVER THE BAY AND 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LATER SHIFTS WILL 
DETERMINE IF A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT. CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 5 
FT SEAS DURING PART OF FRIDAY IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF OUR 
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO N/NW FETCH.

HEADLINES ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
AREA AND INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST. CURRENTLY A STRONG SCA IS 
EXPECTED.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.