HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area AMA

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 05:03:00 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1103 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY...HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z THURSDAY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. THE PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 20Z THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS...MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY AFTER 15Z TO 18Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/ 

UPDATE...
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONCERNED WE COULD SEE SOME RADIATION FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY 4 DEGREES OR LESS IN
MANY LOCATIONS...AND WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT /ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST/ AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. 

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/ 

AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 01Z TO 02Z THURSDAY...AND THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TO 16Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/ 

DISCUSSION...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AND THEY WILL MOVE AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THEN IT WILL EMERGE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO...A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD HELP TO SPARK SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
FOLLOW THE LEAST DRAMATIC ECMWF MODEL FOR OUR AREA FOR THIS
FORECAST. THIS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
UPPER AIR SITUATION.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING AND THIS INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPEARS TO MOVE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THIS MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER LOW WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT FOR SOME
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS BEFORE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ANY MORE.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.