HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area BOI

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 13:25:58 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A QUIET WEATHER REGIME IN THE 
SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES. A 
DRY COLD AIR MASS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL LEAD TO 
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS THEY SPILL SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER RIDGE 
CENTERED FROM EASTERN OREGON NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 
TEMPERATURES TODAY VERY CLOSE TO NORMALS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. UPPER 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF 
SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT ONLY BRIEFLY JUST 
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLDER WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT A 
FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN 
MOUNTAINS WITH A WEAK IMPULSE COMING OVER THE RIDGE PRODUCING A FEW 
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. 

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  UPPER LEVEL THROUGH BEGINS 
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES EAST BY 
SUNDAY NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  BEST CHANCE 
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COLDER 
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF RAIN AND 
SNOW IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE 
MOUNTAINS.  BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY BUT WITH A 
TRANSITION FROM THE EXITING TROUGH BACK TO A RIDGE WILL SEE A MOIST 
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE RIDGE TRYING TO 
REBUILD OVER THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO NEAR 
NORMAL.

 

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG 
POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z.  LOCAL MVFR CEILING WITH A STRATUS DECK IN THE 
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KMUO EAST EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 18Z.  
OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT OF 20 KNOTS UP 
TO 10K FEET MSL.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.