HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area BOU

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 12:49:52 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
412 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME TO CLEAR EAST OF THE 
MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. THE CLEARING
HAS OPEN THE DOOR TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG FORMATION ON THE
PLAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HRRR MODEL SHOWS POCKETS OF
SATURATED BNDRY LAYER AIR ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND AROUND
D.I.A.. LATEST OBS FROM D.I.A. INDICATES 5 MILES IN FOG. COULD SEE
VSBYS AT D.I.A. BRIEFLY LOWERING TO 2-3 MILES BEFORE MIXING OUT
AROUND 15Z WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER SWLY BREEZES. OTHERWISE THE FEW
REMAINING OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT 4 HRS OR SO AND END IN MOST
AREAS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. SHOULD SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DRIER
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 8-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH WARMEST
READINGS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. STILL READINGS ABOUT 3-5F BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE A
SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BENEFITING FROM THESE
WAVES. THIS FIRST ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL AS OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS QUITE
WEAK...UNDER 10KT WHILE THE MOISTURE QG ASCENT ARE OUT OF PHASE.
EXPECT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. AS FOR THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP WITH
GENERALLY A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LIKELY. 

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE STATEWIDE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
STRONGER AND A BIT DEEPER BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT AND HANDLING OF THE ENERGY. THE GFS SHOWS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS ON LATE MONDAY
WHILE THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER AS IT
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. CURRENT WEATHER GRIDS ALREADY HAVE A CHANCE
OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND THIS LOOKS FINE FOR NOW UNTIL
DETAILS BECOME A BIT CLEARER. 

.AVIATION...CLEARING SKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR POCKETS OF FOG TO FORM
IN AND NEAR D.I.A. IN THE PAST HOUR. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
POCKETS OF FOG FLOATING AROUND D.I.A. AND POINTS TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE DENVER FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. COULD SEE THE
VISIBILITY BRIEF DROP TO 2 MILES OR SO AT D.I.A. BEFORE DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHOULD GO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA
AIRPORTS. 

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.