HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area BTV

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 12:14:22 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MIDDAY TODAY. 
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WELL INTO EARLY 
SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE 
WEEKEND...AND ON INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EST THURSDAY...ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST ACCT FOR
LATEST OBS TO ADJUST TEMPS. CLDS STILL LINGER OVER THE CWA THIS
MORNING W/ WK RIDGE BUIKDING INTO AREA...BUT FRNT ON ITS HEELS FOR
LATER THIS MORNING. ALL LOOKS IN GD SHAPE ATTM. TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND NICELY AS SOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN TO INCR WARMTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE 
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTH INTO QUEBEC THIS MORNING AS WK SFC
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHORT-LIVED RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY
TO A LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRNT LATER TODAY ON INTO TNGT. W/ RIDGE
OFF THE COAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WORKING INTO AREA AHEAD OF FRNT
WILL BRING THE CWA YET ANOTHER WARM...ABV NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...EXPECTING PRECIP TO ADVANCE INTO
THE CWA FROM THE SW BY MIDDAY...OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE AFTNOON. -RW WILL BE PRIMARY P-TYPE IN VALLEY LOCALES
WEST OF THE GREENS...W/ RW/SW MIX INITIALLY IN HIR ELEV AND EAST
OF GREENS BFR GOING TO MAINLY -RW FOR A FEW HRS. LOW ASSOCIATED W/
FRNT SETS UP OVER SC QUEBEC LATER TNGT TOWARDS MORNING. MDLS BRING
SFC HIGH EAST FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION OVERNGT CUTTING OFF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS IN TURN WILL PUT FOCUS OF REMAINING
PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND EVENTUALLY HIR
ELEV BY FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND THEN
NW. COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND FRNT WILL CHANGE ANY REMAINING
-RW OVER TO LGT -SW. ACCUM WILL BE LIGHT WITH D-1" IN VALLEY AND
UP TO 2" OF HIR ELEV. CWA WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND FRNT AS GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS
UP TO 20-30 MPH.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EST THURSDAY...FRI AND FRI NGT HAS CWA REMAINING UNDER 
NNW FLOW AS LOW EXITS SLOWLY INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES. DO EXPECT
LGT -SW TO CONTINUE W/ MAIN FOCUS OVER HIR ELEV BFR TAPERING OFF.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY(15-20 MPH) DURING DAYTIME HRS UNTIL WK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. SOME LGT ACCUM(UP TO 1") THERE W/ LITTLE
TO NONE OVER NORTHERN VALLEYS. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS IMPROVE GOING INTO
SATURDAY W/ RIDGE OVERHD...BUT INCR CLDS FROM THE SW DURING THE
DAY AS WK SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE GREAT LKS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 246 AM EST THURSDAY...TRYING TO FIND SOMETHING NOTEWORTHY TO
DISCUSS THIS MORNING BUT AFTER IN DEPTH ANALYSIS IT APPEARS A
RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR OUR REGION AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE DURING
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. RELIABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLES HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT EUROPEAN SOLUTION THIS MORNING...OFFERING UNPHASED
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF OUR REGION NEAR
THE VA/NC CAPES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS NRN STREAM DYNAMICS PLAY THE PRIMARY DAY TO
DAY ROLE IN SENSIBLE CONDITIONS. THAT SAID I DID OFFER A BROAD
LOWER CHC OF A FEW SHSN DURING THESE EARLY PERIODS AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE REGION UNDER STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP PCPN AMTS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH VALUES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL MID-FEBRUARY VALUES
SUN/MON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES 
WILL MODERATE SUBSTANTIALLY UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...CLIMBING 
WELL INTO 30S. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN INTO 
MID-WEEK AS GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ENERGY DRIVES EAST TOWARD THE 
SLV/NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH NEXT THREAT OF PCPN. A LOOK AT LOW LEVEL 
THICKNESS/THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL QPF OUTPUT INITIALLY SUGGEST A 
MODEST PCPN EVENT WITH THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE FALLING IN THE LIQUID 
FORM THOUGH PERHAPS SOME MIXED RA/SN IN THE NRN MTNS AT THE ONSET 
LATER WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 12-15Z
AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY PULLS NORTHEAST. AFTER 15Z...LOWER
STRATUS ERODES THOUGH WITH INCREASING BKN/OVC MID LVL CIGS FROM
FL100-200 AS FLOW TRENDS LIGHT SOUTHERLY (NERLY AT KMSS). OCCLUDED FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RA/SN/DZ/BR THEN OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN
THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME AND TAPERS TO -DZ/BR OVERNIGHT. LOWERING CIGS
TO IFR AT MOST TERMINALS BEHIND OCCLUSION 03-06Z AS FLOW
GENERALLY TRENDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED AS SCT
LIGHT RAIN/DZ AND/OR -SN ENDS AND SLOWLY TRENDS TO VFR (OCCNL
MVFR AT KSLK) BY 18Z.

18Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VRB CLOUD COVER W/OCCNL BKN/OVC VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY ON AND OFF MVFR CIGS POSSBL AT KSLK
WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.