HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area CAE

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 13:13:43 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN TODAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL DURING THE DAY. DRY WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA FROM THE
WEST. MAIN PRECIP IS NOW JUST OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CSRA. HAVE UPPED POPS ACROSS THE CSRA TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS
MORNING NEAR SUNRISE. REMAINING AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH
SUNRISE...THEN RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE. SKIES WILL BE
CLOUDY. TEMPS REMAINING STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...MODELS CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM FOR
TODAY. SPRINKLES AND THEN LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THE MORNING...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS. POPS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT.
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN
THE GFS SHOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR WEDNESDAY
SO CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF STATES
WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND
13Z...THEN SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS 
TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH 21Z WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...WITH MVFR 
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXIST FOR TONIGHT AS MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A 
RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME HAVE 
ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES 
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED SATURDAY 
INTO SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR...CIGS 
AND VSBYS.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.