HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area CLE

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 07:49:21 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1227 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS LOW 
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE 
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT 
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT 
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED JUST TO MAKE SOME MINOR WORDING CHANGES. THE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE DECREASING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER AIR. STILL WATCHING
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS OF INLAND NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING BUT DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. NOT EXPECTING
FREEZING RAIN...BUT THE ROAD SURFACES ARE COLD...SOME SLICK SPOTS
COULD DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
THIS EVENING. SHOWER ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S EXCEPT FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW PA WHERE VALUES ARE CREEPING DOWN INTO
THE LOW 30S. HI RES RUC/NAM BOTH SHOW TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING IN THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ADD A MENTION OF FREEZING
RAIN TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS THE PRECIPITATION APPROACHES PA OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY PULLS 
OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE 
WEST AND BRINGS AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN TWO 
THIRDS OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. AIDING IN THIS PROCESS WILL 
BE A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SHOT OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THAT 
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. 

AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH BY COLD AIR 
ADVECTION. ACTUALLY...AIR MASS MODERATES AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION 
AND IF WE GET INTO SOME AFTERNOON SUN IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES MAY 
CREEP UP WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY HIGHS.

SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST AS FLOW 
BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE OPEN GREAT LAKES. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING 
DRAMATIC TO OCCUR AS COOL AIR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. 

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING THAT PERIOD. 
HOWEVER...ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST 
INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE 
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE TO SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION 
TAKES PLACE WITH THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE SNOW EXPECTED. 
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY AS TIME GOES BY THAT POPS COULD BE INCREASED. 
THE NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE FAIRLY DRY WITH THE SYSTEM BUT THE 
GFS IS HINTING AT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FEATURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL STILL HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW 
ENGLAND COME SUNDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE WORKING 
ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS IT A LITTLE BIT 
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAN PREVIOUSLY. BUT AFTER THAT 
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. 
WITH SOMETHING HEADED OUR WAY FOR MID WEEK WILL JUST GO WITH SOME 
CHANCE POPS. THIS FLOW THOUGH STILL KEEPS US NEAR NORMALS SUNDAY AND 
THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AGAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. AS IT GETS CLOSER CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND THE CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL INCREASE. AS OF 05Z LIGHT RAIN WAS ALREADY LOCATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTHERN OHIO WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER INDIANA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE SLOWED BY DRIER AIR THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AS THE HEAVIER RAIN
DEVELOPS. THE HEAVIER PERIOD OF RAIN LOOKS AS IF IT WILL OCCUR
FROM NEAR SUNRISE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. AS THE HEAVIER RAIN ARRIVES THERE WILL BE A 2 TO 4
HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE
WAKE OF THE RAIN CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND MAY REACH VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF A LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON THU WILL 
CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO SW THEN WEST AND LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA 
LEVELS FOR WAVES AND PROBABLY WINDS ALSO. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT 
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO END THE SCA UNTIL FRI NIGHT. THE MODELS DIFFER 
FOR SAT BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A LOW TO PASS NEAR THE LAKE AND 
WINDS COULD AGAIN RAMP BACK UP OUT OF THE NW TO NORTH TO SCA LEVELS 
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN ON MON AND LEAD 
TO A LIGHT FLOW.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.