HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area CRP

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 05:46:00 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1146 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 6Z TAFS.
ASIDE FROM AVIATION DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NE ZONES UNTIL 8Z. DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO THOSE ZONES
LATER TONIGHT BUT IF ARRIVAL OF AIRMASS IS DELAYED THEN FOG WILL
LAST LONGER AND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED. 

.AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FCST TONIGHT WITH VARIETY OF FLIGHT
RULES EXISTING NEXT 24 HRS. IFR/LIFR XPCTD TONIGHT KVCT/KCRP AND
PERHAPS KALI WITH VFR AT KLRD. BCMG MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR ALL
TERMINALS ON THURS. LOW STRATUS DECK AND FOG CURRENTLY PLAGUING
KVCT AND STRATUS DVLPMNT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KCRP/KALI WITH
CIGS/VIS AT IFR/LIFR LEVELS. CIGS AT KLRD TO GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR. MVFR THEN XPCTD THURS ALL
TERMINALS BUT PRECIP LIKELY TO DVLP THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PRECIP AT ALL TERMINALS BY END OF
THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME MODERATE FROM ENE ON THURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/ 

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. UPDATES THIS EVENING
WERE TO ADD MENTION OF FOG ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS...TO RAISE LOWS
ACROSS SE ZONES...AND TO INTRODUCE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO MUCH OF S TX
THIS EVENING WHILE MOIST AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST ZONES.
EXCEPTION IS COASTAL COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS
MAY REMAIN IN THE 60S AND THUS HAVE INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED MENTION OF FOG ACROSS
COASTAL PLAINS BUT FOG WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT ONCE
BETTER SURGE OF DRY AIR ARRIVES. LATEST NAM/RUC/HRRR INDICATE S/W
VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT AND WITH LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENING BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP MAY DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE ACROSS WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NAM
SEEMS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
AND THUS ONLY HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIP COME ON WED BUT ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN BACK UP. THAT WILL
BE DETERMINED BY UPCOMING MID SHIFT AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
BEYOND TONIGHT WITH THIS UPDATE. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  68  56  67  56  /  10  50  30  60  70 
VICTORIA          53  66  53  64  54  /  10  20  30  40  70 
LAREDO            59  71  57  65  56  /  20  30  30  40  50 
ALICE             61  69  55  67  54  /  10  50  30  50  60 
ROCKPORT          60  67  56  64  57  /  10  50  30  60  70 
COTULLA           54  68  53  62  51  /  10  10  20  40  50 
KINGSVILLE        63  69  56  67  56  /  10  50  30  60  70 
NAVY CORPUS       63  67  57  65  57  /  10  50  30  60  70 

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.