HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area DDC

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 11:15:00 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

...CORRECTED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING 
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING EAST OUT OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN 
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE 
SURFACE HIGH IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL EDGE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN 
KANSAS TODAY AND INTO MISSOURI TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH DRIER 
AIR TO SINK SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A 
RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH 
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE DOMINATES ACROSS WESTERN 
KANSAS. THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 
TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS 
TODAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LOOK FOR 
HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH NEAR 50F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. LOW 
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KICKS OFF TO THE EAST WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING 
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL RETURN A LOW 
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 
HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SOME INCREASED 
HIGH CLOUD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID TO 
UPPER 20S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME 
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

FOR FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DOWN IN NORTHWEST MEXICO IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND COMBINE WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND 
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN FA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM NEAR JOHNSON CITY TO DODGE CITY AND LARNED AND
SOUTH. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
A COLD FRONT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT SOME COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW
ENDING BY DAWN SATURDAY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN OR
SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND
UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST FA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO 
THE WESTERN CONUS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND GUSTY SOUTH 
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BRING BACK WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON 
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WARMING INTO THE MID 50S 
WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT TO THE MID 30S ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL 
CONUS AND PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SOUTH WITH RAIN OR SNOW NORTH. AGAIN MODELS 
ARE ONLY SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT UPPER 
SYSTEM. SOUTH WINDS COULD BE STRONG AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY 
MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN 
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY 
MORNING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE 
WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS WARMING INTO 
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY AFTER 19-21Z TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  25  50  25 /   0   0  20  20 
GCK  48  24  49  23 /   0   0  10  10 
EHA  50  28  50  23 /   0   0  20  20 
LBL  50  25  50  25 /   0   0  20  20 
HYS  47  23  47  23 /   0   0  10  10 
P28  49  27  52  29 /   0   0  20  30 

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.