HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area DLH

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 11:23:00 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
523 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...

VFR AND MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING W TO E FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO. FIRST ROUND OF LOW MVFR CIGS AND
FLURRIES THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL TROUGH
AXIS...THEN ANOTHER QUICK CHANCE OF -SN AND 1000-2000 FT CIGS THIS
EVENING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH RIDES THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST
SYSTEM. COULD BE A BRIEF 2-4 HR PERIOD OF VFR SCT CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS BRD...DLH AND HYR.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING CALM
LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012/ 

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE ROTATING QUICKLY TO THE EAST
ALONG THE ONTARIO-MN BORDER. LIGHT SNOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE
IS FOUND ALONG THE BORDERLAND/IRON RANGE ZONES...SPREADING INTO THE
MN ARROWHEAD. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH
EXITS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT
ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH. 

TEMPERATURES AT 300 AM WERE MILD IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT READINGS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. GRADUAL COOLING WILL BE FOUND
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A CYCLONIC NW FLOW BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE WRN
GRT LAKES REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING EMBEDDED VORTS
TRIGGER PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFER GREATLY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE 10-15 C RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING LAPSE RATES. BASED ON SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP MIXING
WITH THE H85 CAA...HAVE INTRODUCED BROADBRUSH FLURRIES TO ALL
ZONES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO
SMALL POPS FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUM.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH 
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE IN NW WI 
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE LATEST CLIPPER 
SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST 
ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LES TO END ABRUPTLY 
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONLY EXPECTING A DUSTING TO JUST UNDER AN 
INCH THROUGH THE FAVORED REGIONS IN NW WI. THE SFC HIGH SLIDES TO 
THE EAST INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AND INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE 
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE 
HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS 
TO HELP WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WARM INTO 
THE 30S...WITH A FEW 40 DEG READINGS POSSIBLE AS WELL. 

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE PATTERN WILL BECOME QUITE ACTIVE THIS 
COMING WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHRT WVS MOVE ACROSS THE 
UPPER MIDWEST. THE FIRST SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION LATE MONDAY 
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING 
SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NE MN...WEST OF THE 
TWIN PORTS...ALTHOUGH THIS FAVORED SWATH OF SNOW COULD SHIFT IN THE 
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. A BREAK 
IN THE ACTION WILL BE SEEN LATE TUE/EARLY WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM 
BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE WED INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME 
INDICATIONS BY THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING 
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND...SO WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE 
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGHS REMAIN 
MILD IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S NEXT WEEK BEFORE A 
COOL DOWN TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  18  31  11 /  10  10  10  10 
INL  31  12  26   3 /  50  10  10  10 
BRD  35  20  32  11 /  10  10  10   0 
HYR  35  18  34  12 /  10  10  10  20 
ASX  34  19  33  16 /  10  10  20  20 

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.