HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area FGF

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 07:43:32 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.DISUSSION...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SNOW CHANCES IN NW MN. THERE
IS A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER WAVE AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...-35C AT
500MB MOVING INTO NW MN. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF ORGANIZED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN RADARS. VSBYS ARE IN THE 1-3SM RANGE
UPSTREAM...SO THERE COULD BE AN INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A HCO-ROX-BDE LINE...SO WILL INCREASE TO 60 POPS IN THIS
AREA. TEMPS MAY ALSO HAVE A HARD TIME FALLING MUCH HERE WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SNOW...SO WILL INCREASE A BIT. 

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MAINLY PATCHY MVFR CIGS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SOME
SUNSHINE AND SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR THU WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10KT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE LOW END SNOW CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS/NAM/ECMF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. 

THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW TO AROUND 1 SM...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN FLURRY FORM AND MELTING UPON IMPACT WITH AREA
ROADWAYS. KMVX RADAR SHOWS MAJORITY OF SNOW HAS MOVED INTO
NORTHWEST MN AND MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN INTENSITY OF SNOW SO FAR...DROPPED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. 

THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BUT STILL
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER FARTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN MT AND
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER/CLEAR SPOTS...BUT THINK LOW TO MID TEENS SEEM REASONABLE. 

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COUPLE MORE WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY. PRIMARY IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLEST WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...BOUNDED BY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE CLEARING
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
TEENS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
GIVING WAY TO RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH 
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS
TO HOW SPLIT OR PHASED THE TROUGH WILL BE AS IT MOVES OUT. THERE
IS SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY ON BREAKING OUT PRECIP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SNOW. THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK ON TUESDAY BUT MODELS AGAIN BRING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LIGHT PRECIP FOR DAY 7...SO WILL KEEP THE 20-30 POPS
THAT ALLBLEND HAS FOR US. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...SO BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.