HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area FGZ

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 07:07:27 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST WED FEB 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO WESTERN ARIZONA 
MAINLY WEST OF A PRESCOTT TO GRAND CANYON LINE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THURSDAY. SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY 
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OUR NEXT 
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IS NOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF 
THE LAS VEGAS AREA AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST 
PACKAGE LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO EVENING UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. 

THIS STORM CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO TRACK ALMOST DUE SOUTH 
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN 
MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PLACES THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF ARIZONA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY 
WEST OF A PRESCOTT-GRAND CANYON LINE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN 
THESE AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH AN INCH OR TWO 
POSSIBLE...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR WITH THE 
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DROPS OFF QUICKLY EAST OF 
FLAGSTAFF. BY THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO AREAS 
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY...BUT AMOUNTS 
APPEAR LIGHT AT THIS TIME. 

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS 
WILL BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH  
TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR SUNDAY...THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP 
THROUGH THE WEST PRODUCING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND 
SNOW...AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME 
VARIABILITY WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST...AND ALSO THE 
SLOWEST TO MOVE THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES 
WERE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH IT IS 
STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH PRECIP WE WILL RECEIVE. MORE 
DETAILS LATER IN THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. 

A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO 
NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND A 
GOOD CHANCE FOR -SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE LOCATED MAINLY FROM 
KPRC-KFLG-KGCN WESTWARD THROUGH 12Z...AND FROM KPRC-KFLG-KSOW 
SOUTHWARD AFTER 12Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE 
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE 
4500-6000 FT. NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.