HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area FWD

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 05:24:00 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1124 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.AVIATION...
TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR
CIGS REACHING THE METROPLEX. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIGS
OVER OKLAHOMA CITY AND MOVING SOUTH. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE
METRO BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING A BIT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE DENSE FOG/VLIFR CIGS TO THE EAST AND
BRINGS THEM INTO ALL SITES BY MORNING DESPITE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE RUC/NAM DONT SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AND THINK THAT IS
BEST. WILL PUSH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MVFR CIGS BACK AN HOUR IN THE
METROPLEX TO 12Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION SCT MVFR FOR
WACO AS CONFIDENCE OF THE CLOUD DECK REACHING THAT FAR SOUTH IS
NOT THAT HIGH. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ENTERED THE METRO
SITES AND ARENT THAT FAR BEHIND FOR WACO. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER
TO THE NE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/NH

.UPDATE...
THE DENSE FOG CONTINUED TO PUSH WEST AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE
EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT. 

85/NH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
DRYLINE PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
ONLY SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. DRYLINE WILL LOSE ITS EASTWARD PUNCH THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN TONIGHT BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER NW OK/TX. AN AREA OF WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD BUT WILL SCATTER OUT AS THEY
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR NEXT SYSTEM OVER CA. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS OVER THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL START TO SEE SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERRIDES
A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL THOUGH SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. 

UPPER TROF OPENS UP AND PUSHES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON EFFECTIVELY ENDING OUR RAIN CHANCES. WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH...IT DOES LOOK TO BE A COOL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA.

UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT TIMING STILL AN UNCERTAINTY SO
WILL BROAD BUSH WILL LOW POPS FOR NOW. 99

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  62  42  59  42 /   0   0  10  20  40 
WACO, TX              43  63  44  58  47 /   0   0  10  30  50 
PARIS, TX             44  61  40  61  41 /   0   0  10  10  40 
DENTON, TX            42  60  40  58  40 /   0   0  10  20  40 
MCKINNEY, TX          42  63  41  58  41 /   0   0  10  20  40 
DALLAS, TX            41  63  42  60  42 /   0   0  10  20  50 
TERRELL, TX           42  63  42  59  40 /   0   0  10  20  50 
CORSICANA, TX         44  65  43  61  47 /   0   0  10  20  50 
TEMPLE, TX            45  66  45  60  47 /   0   0  10  30  50 
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  58  40  58  41 /   0   0  10  20  40 

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ094-095-106-
107-122-123-135-148-162.