HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area GRB

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 08:38:52 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1033 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...WILL UPDATE FOR
ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 533 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FORM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TWO SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. QUESTIONS STILL LINGER
HOW MUCH SNOW ACTIVITY WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE DRY. WITH VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.
SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF A STURGEON BAY TO WAUTOMA LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
FEW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE THESE AREA AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES 
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 

ANY LINGER LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST. RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES TO MAINLY EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HPC FAVORED THE UKMET
AND 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION TO THIS AREA. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY
WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...SOME OF
WHICH KEPT THE AREA DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM SO HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SMALL
POP FOR VILAS COUNTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING STARTING ON SATURDAY
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRIER AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF WARM
AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT.

.AVIATION...EEARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WERE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DUE TO DENSE FOG. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING
AS A WEAK FRONT TRACKS OVER. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

TDH

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
048>050.