HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area ICT

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 07:50:08 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1106 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS A LITTLE AFTER
DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES ON
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 757 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/

REST OF THE EVENING:
WITH COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS SE PUSH ACROSS THE SE KS/SW MO
BORDER SHRA  ISOLD TSRA ARE VACATING SE KS SUB-DIVISION AT 8 PM.
THEREFORE ALL FORECASTS...INCLUDING HWO...ARE BEING UPDATED TO
REFLECT THESE MOST RECENT CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/

SYNOPSIS: 
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUED ITS SE PUSH TOWARD SE KS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 2 PM THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/MO
BORDER...THROUGH EXTREME SC KS TO THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER W
OF KCSM. SHRA CONTINUED ALONG  IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH AN OCCASIONAL TS APPEARING NEAR THE OK BORDER. TEMPS IN SE KS
WERE IN THE MID 50S WHEREAS TEMPS IN MUCH OF NRN  CNTRL KS HAD
SETTLED INTO THE UPR 30S. THE +FOG THAT HAD SHROUDED ALL OF CNTRL
 SC KS FROM ~2AM TO 1PM HAD NEARLY DISSIPATED WITH ONLY PARTS OF
EXTREME SC KS REPORTING 1/4-1/2SM VSBYS.

TONIGHT:
FOCUS IS ON TIMING ENDING OF -SHRA OVER ERN SECTIONS OF CWA. STILL PLAN 
ON -SHRA TO END ~9PM AS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED...BUT SHEARING...MID-LVL TROF 
CONTINUES ITS E/NE SPRINT TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THE AFORE-MENTIONED 
COLD FRONT SHOULD THEREFORE EXIT SE KS ~4PM AS IT CONTINUES ITS SE TREK 
TOWARD THE LWR MS VALLEY. A MOSTLY CLEAR  SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT THEN 
AWAITS THE CWA AS FAIRLY LARGE...BUT WEAK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS E 
ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD.

THU-FRI:
STILL EXPECT QUIET WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS AS NEARLY ZONAL MID-UPR REGIME 
DOMINATES.

THIS WEEKEND:
MAY SEE A FEW -SHRA CREEP N ACROSS THE OK/KS BORDER FRI NGT AS A FAIRLY 
DEEP BUT BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LVL TROF VENTURING TOWARD THE SRN 
PLAINS DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT SE ACROSS CNTRL KS. HAVE INTRODUCED 15 TO
20% POPS TO SRN KS TO GET THE PRECIS BALL ROLLING. CHANCES FOR -SHRA TO 
BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE BROAD MID-LVL TROF WILL MOVE STEADILY E ACROSS TX 
ON SAT...POSSIBLY REACHING LWR MS VALLEY SAT NGT. NICE WEATHER PREVAILS 
REST OF THE WEEKEND AS FAIRLY STOUT MID-UPR RIDGE MOVES E ACROSS CNTRL 
1/3 OF CONUS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:
STILL ANTICIPATE -SHRA TO RETURN TO KS REGION SUNDAY NGT AND MAY FESTER 
THRU MID-WEEK. THE NEXT MID-UPR TROF PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
"ROUND" OF RAIN MAY SHEAR CONSIDERABLY AS IT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPR MS 
VALLEY AS THE GFS DEPICTS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER  MUCH MORE ROBUST
MID-UPR LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS DEPICT
THE MAIN NE-SW ORIENTED MID-UPR TROF CUTTING ACROSS WRN KS WHICH WOULD 
TRANSLATE INTO THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT LIKELY STALLING RIGHT THROUGH 
THE KICT CWA. AS SUCH HAVE ASSIGNED GENERIC ~30% TO MOST AREAS FOR MOST 
OF THE SUN NIGHT-WED TIMEFRAME UNTIL THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM 
COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
DUE TO DAMP WEATHER OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WITH WINDS TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    27  49  27  54 /  20   0   0   0 
HUTCHINSON      25  48  26  54 /  20   0   0   0 
NEWTON          26  48  26  54 /  20   0   0   0 
ELDORADO        27  48  26  53 /  20   0   0   0 
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  50  27  54 /  20   0   0   0 
RUSSELL         22  46  24  52 /  20   0   0   0 
GREAT BEND      22  47  25  54 /  20   0   0   0 
SALINA          24  48  26  54 /  20   0   0   0 
MCPHERSON       25  48  26  53 /  20   0   0   0 
COFFEYVILLE     33  50  28  56 /  30   0   0   0 
CHANUTE         31  49  27  55 /  30   0   0   0 
IOLA            30  48  27  55 /  40   0   0   0 
PARSONS-KPPF    32  49  27  56 /  30   0   0   0 

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.