HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area ILN

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 11:39:05 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
618 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND IT AS DRIER AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST AND SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT AND
INTERMITTENT SIDE BUT SHOULD HIT EVERYBODY AT ONE POINT IN TIME OR
ANOTHER. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE APPARENT LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SPARKING THEM
CROSSES OHIO. H5 S/W IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN IN/IL AT 12Z AND
QUICKLY RACE TO EASTERN OHIO BY 18Z. ONCE THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSES...THE RAIN WILL BE TURNED OFF IN SHORT ORDER. THE WARM AND
MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW READINGS IN THE 50S TO BE
PULLED INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY. NORTHWEST OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR WILL SEE STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS
CONSENSUS FOR LOWS BUT WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS.

SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE TX COAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST TRACKING
TO THE GREAT LAKES IN ORDER TO PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM SKIMMING OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM AND I TOOK THE FORECAST IN THE DRIER DIRECTION. NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE WHAT I WOULD CONSIDER A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT IS
HAPPENING AT H5 DURING THE 0Z-12Z SUN TIME FRAME SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY SATURDAY REGARDING RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES AFFECTING SOUTHERN CWA IS LOW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FA FOR
SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DROPPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO THE 40S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON.  BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE FA.

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ATTM.
RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW. FINALLY STARTING TO
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS SOME OF THE TAFS. FARTHER W IN
INDIANA CIGS HAVE FALLEN TO IFR. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD
WORK INTO THE TAFS SHORTLY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD BEGINS.

GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING THE LOW/CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU THE
TAFS BETWEEN 12-18Z...BRINGING AN END TO THE RA. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR INTO THE LATE AFTN.

LOW CLOUDS STILL PROGGED TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 21Z IN THE W...00Z
IN THE E. MODEL TIME SERIES ARE SHOWING AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW FORECASTED MVFR FOG...BUT
THIS COULD DEVELOP INTO A STRATUS DECK.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.