HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area IND

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 11:46:25 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
EJECTING WAVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND WEST AND 
DECREASE IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADDED PATCHY 
FOG FOR A FEW HOURS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 
FOLLOWS...

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A LULL IN THE RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS RADAR 
MOSAIC LOOP AT 8Z SHOWS MORE RAIN UPSTREAM WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING 
INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH LACK OF ANY 
UPSTREAM LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND SYSTEM 
NOT STRENGTHENING WILL REMOVE ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WAS GOING UNTIL 
12Z. TRYING TO TIME THE EXIT OF THE RAINFALL IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE 
FOR TODAY IN ADDITION TO THE EXIT OF THE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE 
FRONT. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL STILL BE A GOOD BET IN THE 
EAST AND NORTH AFTER 12Z AND THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELIES THERE 
FOR A FEW HOURS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY STILL HAVE A LITTLE 
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OR COULD EVEN BE CLEAR BY 12Z AND THAT 
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE AND 
HAVE A GRADIENT OF CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT 
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RAPID REFRESH BOTH LOOK LIKE ALL 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z SO GOING DRY FROM THEN 
ON. LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT WITH DRYING 
MOVING IN ALOFT BUT MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT THE CLOUDY TO 
MOSTLY CLOUDY LEVEL UNTIL EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THE MAV 
NUMBERS LOOKED GOOD WITH 850 TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SPLIT SYSTEM. MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A CONSENSUS. 

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 
FRIDAY NIGHT. A GUIDANCE AVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD DURING 
THIS TIME WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 

ON SATURDAY TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER 
CLIPPER TYPE WAVE WILL SWING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER 
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS. THE NORTHERN 
SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE ITS FORCING WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA 
AND WILL AT MOST RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHERN 
COUNTIES.

MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS SOUTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN TO BRING IT FURTHER 
NORTH WITH THE LATEST SET OF RUNS. NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THIS IS 
A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE OR JUST SOMETHING WITH THE 0Z RUNS THAT 
WILL FLIP BACK WITH THE 12Z SET. EVEN WITH THE CURRENT MORE 
NORTHWARD PATH OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MODELS /GFS...NAM...ECMWF/ ARE 
STILL NOT BRINGING QPF QUITE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING IT JUST TO THE 
SOUTH. THEREFORE WITH THIS ISSUANCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY 
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT IF THE NORTHWARD TREND CONTINUES POPS WILL HAVE 
TO BE ADDED AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY AND 
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

EARLY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THE HIGH PRESSURE 
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TO 
OUR WEST AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY 
NIGHT AND TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY AND 
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  

MODELS INDICATE A WET PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEY HAVE 
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER SO MONDAY NIGHT NOW LOOKS DRY FOR AT LEAST 
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION AND IF THE CANADIAN IS CORRECT PRECIP 
COULD EVEN HOLD OFF AS LATE AS MIDDAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER FROM MIDDAY 
TUESDAY ON IT LOOKS QUITE WET ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE CONSALL MOS 
IS EVEN SHOWING LIKELY POPS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER AFTER THAT...CUT THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS 
A LITTLE AND RAISED MINS SLIGHTLY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

TAFS WILL START OUT LIFR CEILINGS VSBYS WITH RAIN/FOG. BUT WILL 
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR 
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE INDIANA 
ILLINOIS BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS INDIANA BY 
MIDDAY. IFR CEILINGS EXTEND ABOUT 150 MILES BEHIND THE FRONT AND 
THEN RAPIDLY IMPROVE.  

ACROSS OUR REGION...WE SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR CEILINGS BY 14Z-15Z AND 
TO MVFR BY 17Z-18Z AND VFR 20Z-21Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. AHEAD OF 
THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST UP TO 
12 KNOTS AND A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM THIS EVENING 
ON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  NAM 
SOUNDINGS INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND 
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS FOG MAY BE QUITE 
SHALLOW AND FOR NOW WILL FORECAST MAINLY MVFR FOG LATER TONIGHT AND 
POSSIBLY IFR AT KBMG WHERE WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.  ANY FOG WILL 
CLEAR OUT BY 15Z FRIDAY.  

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.