HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area JAX

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 06:31:41 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
916 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...A COOL MARINE STRATUS/FOG BANK BEGAN TO DRIFT INLAND
ACROSS DUVAL...CLAY AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES LAST HOUR WITH VSBYS
AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS AS SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASED WITH
SFC BASED NE FL AND WINDS QUICKLY BACKING TO THE WSW ABOVE 2 KFT
PER THE 00Z JAX RAOB. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND STRATUS TRENDS...ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE COUNTIES INCLUDING NASSAU THROUGH
8 AM.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRATUS DECK WILL LOWER WITH AREAS OF FOG
FORMING ACROSS MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION...HOWEVER...HAVE REFRAINED
FROM A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SE GA AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR NE FL
COUNTIES AT THIS TIME BECAUSE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING AS THE
QUASI-STATIONARY MORPHS INTO A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED INCREASING SLY FLOW OF 15 KTS
JUST ABOVE THE SFC AFTER ABOUT 05Z. SO..THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED IF THE WINDS INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD...OR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ACROSS MORE
COUNTIES IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT.

TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE
LOW 60S COAST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 

.AVIATION...LIFR TO VLIFR DUE TO FG AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT JAX...CRG...VQQ THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SSI AND GNV BY 03-04Z.

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. ENE FLOW 10 KTS OR LESS WILL BECOME SSE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMBINED SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. DENSE FOG OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE NORTH OF ST AUGUSTINE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THU. 

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  77  57  75 /  20  50  60  40 
SSI  58  73  60  69 /  10  30  60  50 
JAX  56  79  58  75 /  10  30  50  50 
SGJ  60  75  59  72 /  10  20  40  50 
GNV  57  80  57  78 /  20  20  40  50 
OCF  59  81  59  79 /  10  20  40  50 

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-DUVAL-NASSAU-
     ST JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA 
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST 
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM.