HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area LKN

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 07:43:38 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
949 PM PST WED FEB 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE STORM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL PULL OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING
HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGING THE CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND.

.UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO PUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF
WHITE PINE AND NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
MOIST AIR AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FLOW CONTINUES TO DROP LIGHT
AMOUNTS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALL RELATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN PUBLISHED...WILL GET THE TEXT PRODUCTS OUT SOON. NO OTHER
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 939 PM / 

AVIATION...CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE REGION AS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY. SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT KELY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD BE GONE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL VERY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT KTPH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING AT KEKO AND KWMC EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS MORNING'S SNOW AND THIS AFTERNOON'S
MELTING, ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCFG AND FEW001 TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY AS BUFR
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY KEEP THE LOW LEVELS DRY AND FOG FREE. RCM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 610 PM / 

UPDATE....WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG WORDING TO VALLEY LOCATIONS IN ELKO
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL SEND UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 533 PM / 

AVIATION UPDATE...HAVE ADDED VCFG TO TAF SITES KWMC AND WEKO FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH MAY INDUCE
FOG FORMATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 254 PM / 

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 500MB
CIRCULATION FROM TODAY'S STORM CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AT THIS
HOUR WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LAS VEGAS. SNOW
CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO DROP ALL WINTER WX
HEADLINES...AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN ONLY. HAVE ENDED ALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS BY
06Z TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO NORTHWESTERN NV AFTER MIDNIGHT...BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED MELTING
SNOW COVER ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY...THUS FEEL THE CHANCE FOR
FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCE THIS IN
THE WX GRIDS ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY EXPECTING A NICE DAY WITH RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE TO
500MB...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. BY TOMORROW NIGHT HAVE SPREAD THE
FREEZING FOG AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AS SNOW-MELT DURING
THE DAY WILL MOISTEN THE PBL...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH CALM WINDS
AND STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS TO INCREASE THE LIKELY HOOD OF VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID-40S. 

BY SATURDAY ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN
NV...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS A FLATTER MORE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
WAVE...THUS KEPT POPS AS IS AND EVEN TRENDED VALLEYS DOWN A BIT.
JUST LOOKING LIKE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME...WITH GUSTY
WINDS ON SATURDAY.  

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO REASONING OF 
POOR GFS INITIALIZATION FROM THE PMDHMD DISCUSSION...HAVE LEANED 
TOWARD THE ECWMF. THUS GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND DEEPER THAN THE EC 
ON TROF OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE POPS MAINLY IN 
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL MODELS GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT. EVEN 
SO...MODELS DO AGREE ON H7 TEMPERATURES NEAR -14C OVER THE WEEKEND 
IN MOST AREAS. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 
DEGREES. MODELS DO AGREE WITH KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER 
THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW 
NORMAL.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT KWMC...KEKO AND KTPH THROUGH THURSDAY. 
CIGS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AT KELY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE 
AREA TODAY MOVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 
AT KTPH WILL DECREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.