HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area LSX

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 05:18:32 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1109 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORTMAX DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH ONLY REFINEMENTS IN THE SHORT-RANGE
POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

CARNEY

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

THE COVERAGE OF RAIN TODAY HASN'T BEEN QUITE WHAT I HAD ANTICIPATED. 
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE LOCATED 
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MO. RAIN/SHOWER 
COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND HOWEVER BETWEEN 00-03Z AS THE STRONG SHORT 
WAVE TROF CURRENTLY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER MOVES INTO WESTERN MO 
RESULTING IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STEEPER LAPSE 
RATES SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS. THE WEAKENING UPPER 
SYSTEM WILL THEN ACCELERATE LATER TONIGHT AND THIS INDICATES THE 
RAIN WILL END RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06-10Z.

EXPECTING STRATUS TO BLANKET THE AREA AT DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. LOW 
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO EASTERN MO AND 
WESTERN IL...RESULTING IN CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY 
PROGRESSES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY HAVE BEEN SHADED TOWARDS THE COOLER 
MET GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CLOUDY AND COOL START WITH WEAK CAA AND 
ENSUING CLEARING TRENDS. 

GLASS

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

THURSDAY NIGHT SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT 
WINDS...SO COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S. 
THEN ON FRIDAY...RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY 
WINDS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SEE TEMPS 
WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS 
REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRIES TO BRING IN 
PCPN WITH IT...BUT FEEL THAT IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 
ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO 
LOW 30S FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
WARM UP TEMPS ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON
MONDAY.

THEN NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS 
SYSTEM A BIT MORE VIGOROUS WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE BY MONDAY 
NIGHT AND LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE 
AND TIMING OF PCPN STILL LOW...SO FOR NOW JUST HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS 
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOT A LOT OF 
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH...SO HIGHS ON TUESDAY 
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT... 
AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S. SO PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN 
AT THIS TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BYRD

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

AN AREA OF -RA EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE MOVE SLOWLY EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE -RA IN
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 2-5 HOURS. HAVE REMOVED CB FROM KCOU AS
THERE HAVE BEEN VERY FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST TWO HOURS. EXPECT
EXTENSIVE AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT...AT LEAST IN CIGS...UNTIL
14-16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH
SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO ALL TAF SITES BY AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
10Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXTENSIVE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MO
WILL LIKELY KEEP KSTL IFR UNTIL 16Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

BRITT

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.