HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area LUB

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 06:27:09 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH IN LIGHT FOG FORMATION AT KLBB
THAT A TEMPO HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE TAF. LESS CHANCES STILL EXIST
AT KCDS BUT NONETHELESS...A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG WAS MENTIONED IN
THE TAF. BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...A MID LEVEL LAYER OF
CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/ 

UPDATE...
HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG MENTION TO AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.
NEAR SURFACE SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS ALL AREAS AND
NOT JUST ON THE CAPROCK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/ 

SHORT TERM...
WINDS SLOWLY DROPPING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGE NOSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW 
WILL BACK MORE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH ENOUGH OF A 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES COOL FOR THE POSSIBILITY 
OF LIGHT FOG ON THE CAP-ROCK. WE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY THE PREVIOUS 
MENTION OF FOG TO INCLUDE ALL SECTIONS ON THE CAP-ROCK. NEXT PACIFIC 
ENERGY IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED BUT PROGRESSIVE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHERN BAJA. UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD 
PROSPECTS FOR AN INCREASE IN A LOWER MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ON 
THURSDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL. MINOR CHANGES ALL-IN-ALL TO 
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON THE APPROACHING UL 
LOW/TROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF SWRN NV 
INTO NRN BAJA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL DIVERT SOME 
OF THE MID LVL PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO WTX...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE LOW LVL MOISTURE LAGS...THOUGH DOES
BEGIN TO SURGE UP THE RGV THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE EDGING NWARD DURING
THE DAY FROM SW TO NE. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTIONABLE
POPS ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES AT 12Z FRI...WITH A TRANSITION NEWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN
THE PROGS ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS NOW THE FASTEST
AND SHALLOWEST AMPLITUDE AS IT JOINS ITS WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF THE NAM/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE
SIMILAR...THOUGH THE NAM IS FASTER...BOTH CONTINUE THE CLOSED LOW
AS IT PUSHES THRU TX. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO THEM ADVECTING IN MORE
LOW LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF SPEED IS ON TRACK
WITH THE NAM THOUGH IT OPENS UP AS IT CROSS WTX. THE OTHER
DIFFERENCE IS THE SLOWER FRONTAL PUSH WITH THE ECMWF SAT MORNING
WHICH WOULD KEEP PTYPE AS ALL RA...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE THE MIXED
PTYPE ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE EXTENDED PROGS IS THAT SHORTWAVE 
RIDGING WILL SET IN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UL WAVE MON INTO TUE. 
THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A LOW END WIND EVENT. THE 
DRY LINE IS NOW PROGGED TO HOLD ON THE CAPROCK THRU MIDDAY 
MON...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TUE 
MORNING. THOUGH ONE FEATURE THAT MAY LESS THE WIND THREAT IS THE MID 
LVL MOISTURE COMING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES MON AFTERNOON...WITH THE 
MAIN PUSH OF THE UL TROUGH. STILL...ENOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 
GUIDANCE ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH TO GET TO SPECIFIC.

MEADOWS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  53  30  50  28 /   0   0   0  10  20 
TULIA         25  51  32  52  30 /   0   0   0  10  20 
PLAINVIEW     27  52  33  52  31 /   0   0  10  10  20 
LEVELLAND     27  54  33  52  32 /   0   0  10  20  20 
LUBBOCK       28  53  33  53  33 /   0   0  10  20  20 
DENVER CITY   28  55  32  53  35 /   0   0  10  20  20 
BROWNFIELD    28  54  32  53  35 /   0   0  10  20  20 
CHILDRESS     30  54  33  52  34 /   0   0   0  10  20 
SPUR          30  54  32  54  36 /   0   0  10  10  20 
ASPERMONT     32  56  34  54  36 /   0   0  10  10  20 

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.