HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area LZK

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 07:46:43 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1149 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.AVIATION....
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. IFR AND LOW IFR 
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN 
THE SOUTHEAST...SO INITIALLY...VCSH WILL BE PREVAILING. AFTER THE 
FRONT PASSES...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...AND ALL AREAS SHOULD 
BECOME VFR BY MID DAY...AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AND SCATTERS OUT 
FOG. 

NOTE TO USERS OF THE KM89 TAF...THERE WILL BE NO AMENDMENTS UNTIL 
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. 57.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/ 

UPDATE...

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA AS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF AR.
HOWEVER...KEEP POPS ALONG THE MO BORDER AS PRECIP TO THE WEST
SHOULD SHIFT EAST ALONG THE AR/MO STATE LINE. HAVE ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS LIGHT WINDS
AND MOISTURE FROM THE RAINFALL EARLIER WILL GENERATE SOME FOG.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE. A WARM FRONT ALONG THE AR/LA LINE IS
PROMOTING ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LA AND UP INTO AR.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAS GIVEN IMPETUS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO MAINLY LARGE HAIL AS
THE NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS LARGELY STABLE. IF ANY SVR STORMS
DO OCCUR...THEY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A CAMDEN TO PINE BLUFF TO
STUTTGART LINE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE THU AND FRI BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SAT. THE GFS AND NAM ARE BULLISH ON
PRECIP AND FURTHER NORTH BUT INCONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT AND FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF FOR
THIS PACKAGE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT GFS/NAM
SOLUTION AND BRING LOW CHC POPS INTO THE CEN PART OF THE STATE.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE PD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH 
UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE COASTS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO 
THE EAST COAST MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS 
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY 
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ON INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE 
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL 
INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE 
OF RAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND INCREASE RAIN 
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.