HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area MEG

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 08:39:49 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/ 

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED INTO WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
ALABAMA STATE LINE. THEY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED
WELL BEHIND THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
WE WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH THIS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WITH DEW POINTS ONLY 1-3 DEGREES BELOW
CURRENT TEMPERATURES...EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. TOMORROW
WILL BE DRIER BUT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/ 

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE U.S. 
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
LIFTING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. DRY PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY...UNDER ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD FORECAST WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. 

AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND... AS A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF LIFTS FROM TX INTO NORTHERN
AL. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF 
INTERSTATE 40 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SHOWED A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT
TO AN EARLY/MIDWEEK UPPER TROF LIFTING INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH SOME REDUCTION FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS.

PWB

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BE VFR AT KMEM...KTUP...AND KMKL WITH
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS...WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS AND MVFR FOG SEEN
TOWARDS SUNRISE. MVFR CIGS AT KJBR WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR. LIGHT RAIN SEEN ON RADAR ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
BRIEFLY AFFECT KTUP OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES AFTER SUNRISE VEERING SOUTH WINDS AT 6 TO 9
KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST LATE. SKIES WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS BY SUNSET.

JAB

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  50  59  39  58 /  80   0   0   0 
MKL  51  57  34  59 / 100  10   0   0 
JBR  44  53  33  54 /  50   0   0   0 
TUP  52  66  41  61 / 100  20   0   0 

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.