HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area MFL

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 11:58:53 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
628 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE MID/LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL
VEER THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SOME OF THE TAF SITES MAY
JUST BECOME VARIABLE IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND AND TOWARDS KAPF LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA...HOWEVER,
THIS RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SE U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE LOW
LEVELS AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW SHOWERS. THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAY ENHANCE THIS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. THE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER, IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND SHOULD MOVE BACK NORTH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, BUT COULD ALSO AFFECT THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AND
WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS, TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. IN FACT, IT MAY EVEN FEEL MUGGY ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON
SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS TX FRI NIGHT INDUCING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NW GULF SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING IT NE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT SHOULD MOVE TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS SHOWS GOOD ENOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO MENTION AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THIS
SYSTEM RATHER FAST AND HAVE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS BY MON MORNING. A SLIGHT COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES LOWER MONDAY, BUT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO
BOUNCE BACK TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW SHIFT QUICKLY TO EAST
NORTHEAST.

MARINE...PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE STARTING FIRST ACROSS THE GULF EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN SPREADING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

FIRE WEATHER...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO PROBLEMS
EXPECTED AS MIN RH ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 35% THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  81  67  81  68 / -  10 30 30 
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  69  80  70 / -  10 20 20 
MIAMI            82  68  82  69 / -  10 20 20 
NAPLES           81  65  82  65 / -  10 30 20 

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.