HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area MHX

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 12:33:00 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THEN BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. ASSOCD
WEAK SFC LOW WILL PUSH THRU THE SE STATES AND INTO THE EASTERN 
CAROLINAS THIS AFTN AS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS ALONG THE SE
COAST. GOOD MULTILAYER MOIST INFLOW BUT RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING
SUGGESTS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF RAIN EVENT FOR EASTERN NC TODAY.

MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOWER
LEVELS WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN AS STRENGTHENING SE FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT PCPN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE FCST AREA DURING MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTN WITH NUMEROUS LIGHT TO
BRIEFLY MODERATE SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA THIS AFTN. QPF AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH WITH SOME AMOUNTS CLOSER
TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE NEAR TRACK OF WEAK LOW AND NORTHWARD MOVING
WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND NEAR THE COAST. HAVE KEPT TSTM
MENTION LIMITED TO OFFSHORE WHERE GULF STREAM INTERACTIONS ENHANCE
INSTABILITY.

HIGH TEMP FCST WILL BE TRICKY WITH DECENT WAA OFFSET BY THICKENING
CLOUD COVER AND AFTN PCPN. EXPECT MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
BUT SOME INLAND AREAS MAY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S WHILE SE COASTAL
SECTIONS MAY SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S IN WARM SECTOR.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SHEARED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCD WEAK SFC SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA THIS EVE AND BRINGS TO AN END THE STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS AS 
MID LEVEL DRYING WORKS TO THE COAST. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT SO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY CARRYOVER INTO EARLY FRI MORN. CLOUDS
AND VERY WEAK CAA WILL MAINTAIN LOW TEMPS LARGELY IN THE 40-45 DEG
RANGE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM WED...MAIN ISSUE OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL STRONG COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN NC. FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER WEAK CAA WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOM
TOWARDS THE AREA SAT THROUGH SUN. CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF
DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO CROSS EASTERN NC SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. GFS IS FASTER WITH ITS SCENARIO AND BRINGS
IN A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESSES THE SURFACE
LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TOO QUICKLY COMPARED TO ECMWF
AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.

LATEST ECMWF BOMBS OUT THE DEVELOPING LOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 MPH BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE OBX AND SOUND COUNTIES
SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PAN OUT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FETCH FROM
00-12Z SAT NIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST. MAIN
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTMAX WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
LATE SUN EVENING WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY SHOWERS. 
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 1.50-2.00 ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS COASTAL STORM. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR
THE APPROACHING STORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IMPACT
DETAILS ARE FINE TUNED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS
MON INTO TUES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE WITH
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO...UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR LOWS.
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO IMPACT THE
REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURS.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/...
MOIST INFLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES/WARM FRONT WILL LEAD
TO LOWERING CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ARND MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTN ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER RAIN BEGINS THEN TO IFR AS SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS
LATER THIS AFTN.

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVE...THOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GET TRAPPED BELOW FRONTAL
INVERSION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI THROUGH SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH SAT AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW
WILL BOMB OUT OFF THE NC COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING WITH IT
HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION MON WITH
A RETURN TO VFR IN SUNNY SKIES...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MON DUE
TO TIGHT NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCD WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY WILL SEE
SE/S WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSS OUTER CENTRAL AND
SRN WTRS DURING THE LATE AFTN. WAVES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTER WATERS S OF HATTERAS GETTING TO 6 FT OR
MORE. CONT SCA FROM 21Z THURSDAY THROUGH 08Z FRIDAY SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM THURS...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FRI WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BUILD 15-20 KNOTS BUT AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS...BOTH IN WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
EAST...NORTH OF THE WATERS FRI INTO SAT WITH WINDS VEERING
NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

VERY UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR A STRONG COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE NC WATERS
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN WITH GALES LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...WIND FETCH WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST NEAR
30 KNOTS FROM AROUND 00Z-12Z SUN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IF THE CURRENT SCENARIO MATERIALIZES. SEAS WILL BUILD 8
TO 10 FT AT PEAK...THEN AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS
ON MON...SCA CONDITIONS IN SEAS GREATER THAN 6 FT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MON ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF DIAMOND
SHOALS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REGARDING THE COASTAL STORM.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST 
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.