HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area MLB

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 13:11:51 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...

TODAY...THE AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A MILD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. 

THE MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. CURIOUSLY...THE GFS HAS POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF WITH NO QPF. THE NAM ALSO DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF.
HOWEVER...BOTH DO SHOW A LATE DAY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM ABOUT CANAVERAL TO OKEECHOBEE...WHICH WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

THERE WILL BE SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD SO
THE AMOUNT OF HEATING/INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN 850-700
MB DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...AM NOT INCLINED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA
AS WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH SLIDES INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE GFS HAS
BACKED OFF ON POPS WITH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT. OTHER THAN A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE DAY
EAST/WEST COAST BOUNDARY COLLISION...DO NOT SEE THE FORCING TO
INCLUDE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THE INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY BRING PATCHY FOG.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. A WEAK 
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO 
MOVE TOO MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. 
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ~ 1.60-1.70 INCHES WILL POOL OVER THE 
AREA. WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EVEN 
THOUGH MOST RECENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST 50-60 PERCENT 
CHANCES FROM I-4 NORTHWARD. CONTINUE TO FEEL THAT THIS IS TOO HIGH. 
DUE TO THE LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A EAST-WEST 
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISION LATE IN THE DAY. FRI NIGHT...THE 
FORMER BOUNDARY...SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS THIS HAPPENS A LOW 
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GOMEX. WILL CONTINUE 
TO KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST 
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO FEEL GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE 
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT IT ALL MAY DEPEND ON HOW FAR 
SOUTH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY MAKES IT BEFORE IT LIFTS BACK 
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

A WARM DAY IN STORE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 
LOWER 80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD AND MAINLY IN THE 60S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GOMEX IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. 
WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY WITH SURFACE WINDS 
VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. FEEL THAT MUCH OF THIS DAY WILL 
REMAIN DRY WITH A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE THOUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IN STORE 
WITH LOWER 80S AREAWIDE AND DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON THIS 
DAY WE MAY SEE A FEW MID 80S. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS 
EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT DRAGGING YET ANOTHER WEAKENING 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
SUN MORNING ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER IN 
BRINGING THE BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FOR POPS SAT NIGHT 
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (30-40 PERCENT) FOR INDIAN RIVER 
COUNTY-OSCEOLA COUNTY NORTHWARD WITH 20 PERCENT POPS SOUTHWARD FROM 
HERE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH THE MAIN 
THREAT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS THE WIND PROFILE REMAINS FAIRLY 
UNIDIRECTIONAL. GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WILL REMAIN 
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE INCREASING AS A 
120 KNOT UPPER JET MOVES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL 
CONTINUE MILD AND IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIMP THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING. 
HOWEVER...FEEL NORTHERN ZONES MAY BECOME PRECIPITATION FREE EARLIER 
IN THE DAY WITH GREATEST SHOWER CHANCES SOUTHWARD LATER THROUGHOUT 
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR SUN BUT IF 
FRONT DOES LAG BEHIND A BIT THEN IT MAY BE ADDED SOUTH OF THE I-4 
CORRIDOR BY FUTURE SHIFTS. FOR HIGHS WILL GO WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 70S 
AS THERE IS NOT A STRONG COLD PUSH BEHIND THIS LATEST SYSTEM. 
DEPENDING ON TIMING/CLOUD COVER...A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE 
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUN NIGHT 
WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 
I-4 CORRIDOR...WITH LOWER 50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE AS HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FORCES COOLER/DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW 
DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO ALONG THE MID 
ATLC COAST MON NIGHT AND THEN OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLC DURING THE 
DAY ON TUE THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST EARLY ON MON 
BECOMING EASTERLY BY MON NIGHT AND EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON 
TUE-TUE NIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON WED. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO 
REMAIN MAINLY DRY. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO ON MON...NEAR SEASONAL 
NORMS ON TUE AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR WED.

.AVIATION...PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS BEEN NOTED AT A FEW TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING... UT WITH SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING
TO INCREASE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG PROBLEMS
BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY LOOKS
REMOTE.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...PROXIMITY OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL PROVIDE FOR A SOUTH FLOW TODAY AND TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL INCREASES OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH 
AND EAST. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SW/W WINDS 
DURING THE DAY...BECOMING MORE S/SE DURING THE EVENING AND 
OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 

SAT-SAT NIGHT...WARM SECTOR S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING OFFSHORE AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS...CONTINUING 
TO INCREASE TO 20/20-25 KTS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3 
FT OR LESS DURING THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE 
SAT NIGHT. A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS MOVING OFF OF THE COAST MAY BE 
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING...MAINLY FROM THE CAPE 
NORTHWARD.

SUN-MON...PRE-FRONTAL SW WINDS 20/20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO 
WSW/W AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS 
VEERING TO NW BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTHERLY SUN 
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 
DAY ON MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE ON SUN-MON.

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES FROM 
APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED LIGHTNING 
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  61  76  61 /  10  10  30  30 
MCO  82  60  81  63 /  10  10  30  30 
MLB  80  62  80  65 /  10  10  30  30 
VRB  81  60  81  62 /  10  10  30  30 
LEE  80  61  79  62 /  10  10  30  30 
SFB  80  61  79  62 /  10  10  30  30 
ORL  80  62  79  63 /  10  10  30  30 
FPR  81  60  81  63 /  10  10  30  30 

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.