HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area MPX

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 05:29:38 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1120 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 212 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/
THE LATEST MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST 
AIRFLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. 
SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER WESTERN 
CANADA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL 
CONTINUE TO TREK SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAYBE SQUEEZE OR WRING OUT 
OVER THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS 
ANTICIPATED. 

BY SUNDAY...THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE OF SOUTHWESTERLY AIRFLOW AS 
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP 
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE WEATHER 
SYSTEM ADVERTISED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PAST TWO MODEL 
RUNS...CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DEVELOP THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL 
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE 
LOW...COULD STILL GENERATE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS MONDAY AND MONDAY 
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW.    

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS GO AROUND WILL BE SOME IFR/MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT AS WE SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH PASSING EAST. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... THEN BE
REPLACED BY CLEARING AND SOME IFR/MVFR FOG... WITH LIFR FOG
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY STAY UP
JUST ENOUGH FOR FOG TO REMAIN ABOVE LIFR... PARTICULARLY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OVER. ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
QUICKLY IN THE MORNING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY... WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

KMSP... TAF REFLECT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS... WITH PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY BEING THE EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. COULD CERTAINLY
SEE THINGS GET DOWN CLOSE TO A MILE FOR A TIME DEPENDING UPON HOW
MUCH WINDS DIE OFF AND/OR HOW QUICKLY AND TO WHAT EXTENT UPSTREAM
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WORK ACROSS THE AREA. SO... SOME AMENDMENTS
DEFINITELY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE WORK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

//OUTLOOK FOR KMSP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.