HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area MRX

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 11:16:55 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK 
COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THIS 
MORNING AHEAD OF FROPA. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY...RAIN WILL 
SLOW END...BUT EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE INTO 
THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED WHICH 
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEY BUT CONFIDENCE 
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WITH LOW 
CLOUDINESS ERODING...BUT BEING REPLACED BY INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS SEEM TO BE
SLIGHTLY CLOSER ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SRN PLAINS SATURDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 16/00Z ECMWF IS NOW MUCH CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION
WHILE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...
BUT HAS A SIMILAR TRACK. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT PLUS
UPSLOPE SE WINDS WILL CREATE PLENTY OF LIFT...SO I CHOSE TO BUMP
POPS UP TO LIKELY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH POPS JUSTIFIED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN POPS
AND QPF DECREASE ON SUNDAY.

ACTUAL TRACK COULD DRAW COLDER AIR INTO SW VA AND NE TN ON SUNDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THIS BEARS WATCHING...BUT FOR
NOW I WORDED AS BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
SEASONAL HIGHS AS A LARGE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. 

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ELONGATED SURFACE LOW BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT TOO SOON TO 
GO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GFSX MOS TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY CONSISTENT FROM 12Z TO 00Z RUNS...AND WERE FOLLOWED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  42  63  42  56 /  70   0   0   0  70 
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  42  60  40  54 /  90   0   0   0  50 
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  41  60  38  54 /  80   0   0   0  50 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  38  56  34  56 / 100   0   0   0  20 

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.