HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area MTR

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 07:06:07 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
953 PM PST WED FEB 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 7:45 PM PST WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION IS SUPPORTED BY MUCH LOWER HUMIDITIES FROM THE SURFACE UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED TO
THE 20S TODAY. 00Z OAKLAND SOUNDING SHOWS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE DOWN
TO 0.17" AN INDICATION OF HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS NOW. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX WAS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THUS THE
FORECAST IS CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO DECOUPLING WITH AN
EXCEPTION MADE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND NEAR OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
CONFINED TO THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS. VALLEY WINDS WILL VERY LIKELY DECOUPLE.
WEAK LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN BACK TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION/DOWNSLOPE WARMING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTER A NOTICEABLY
CHILLY START. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET LIFTED UPWARDS QUICKLY ONCE
SOLAR WARMING KICKS IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST BAY COUNTIES
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

THURSDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
REPLACED BY DRIER WEATHER LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THIS TIME COULD SEND A MODERATE TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY...DROPPING
ANYWHERE FROM 1/10TH OF AN INCH TO A 1/4 INCH OF RAIN. FORECAST
MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS FOR TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:55 PM PST WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. DRY
NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NO CLOUD CONCERNS. ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SFC THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH....SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHEAST 
DRAINAGE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...TURNING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM