HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area PAH

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 11:54:04 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
239 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER WAVE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
IN ITS WAKE. ANY SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRIZZLE SHOULD TAPER
OFF THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER.
FOG IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING INTO THE NW 1/3 OF MISSOURI. QUIET
WX TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. 
SATURDAY...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS S/WV TROF THAT
WILL TRACK E/NE TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY JUST NORTH OF THE TN/AR STATE
LINES. BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY WORK IN TO RESULT IN A
RAIN / SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLY A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THE FORECAST WAS ALIGNED
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF 
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN...BRINGING A RETURN TO 
SUNSHINE. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO 
END THE WEEKEND.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST 
OF THE AREA. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MID 
WEEK. THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM GLOBAL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO 
THE SPEED OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST...THE GFS 
THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATE A RELATIVELY SLOW PROGRESSION 
WITH RAIN CHANCES PEAKING LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A 
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE 
END OF THE FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN 
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EVENT.

.AVIATION...
CIGS BLO 1K/FT AND VSBYS BLO 1SM WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE AREAS OF DRIZZLE. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AND SHIFT WINDS TO NW THIS MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.