HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area PUB

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 12:57:25 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
401 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW 
EXCEPTIONS. ONE OF THESE AREAS IS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF N EL 
PASO COUNTY REGION WHERE A LOW DECK OF STRATUS WAS NOTED. ALSO...THE 
UPPER ARK RIVER VALLEY IN THE GREATER KLXV AREA WAS OVERCAST WITH 
LOW CLOUDS. A FEW MID LVL CLOUDS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE. TEMPS AT 2 AM 
WERE WIN THE 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH +-SINGLE 
DIGITS NOTED ACROSS THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MTNS. NO PRECIP WAS NOTED 
ON REGIONAL RADARS OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 
WERE  LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE C MTNS. 

TODAY...

IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...THE CONCERN IS LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE 
GREATER KCOS REGION. SHORT RANGE SIMULATIONS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH 
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. AS FLOW AT 700 
TRANSITIONS FROM SW TO NW AROUND SUNRISE...I BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL 
DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN AT LLVLS. LOW CIGS ACROSS N EL 
PASO COUNTY SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE 11-13 UTC TIME 
FRAME.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER NICE...ALBEIT COOL DAY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE 
LIGHT TODAY AND IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS WILL BE 
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST POPULATED AREAS. A 
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
THE CONTDVD. 

TONIGHT...

ONLY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS 
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER VCNTY S AZ MOVES 
SE. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW MAY 
MOVE OVER THE S SXNS OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUDINESS OVER 
THE SE PART OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. 

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS 
THE REGION WITH THE LATEST MODELS TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH AN 
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
WHICH THEN PHASES WITH WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO 
AND CONTINUES OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 
THAT SAID...HAVE INCREASED AND ADDED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS. DIGGING SHORT WAVE 
ALLOWS FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE PALMER DVD 
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SLIDES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH 
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE PASSING PHASING TROUGH 
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE FAR SE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE 
STATE AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. 
DRY WEATHER WITH AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS 
THE AREA.  

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER 
MODELS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT OF GREAT BASIN SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING 
OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO 
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST 
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MILD 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE 
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WITH AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND 
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO 
MONITOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER 
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE CONTDVD. 

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED ACROSS 
THE REGION WITH ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIGGING 
ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO MAINLY 
THE CENTRAL MTS WITH AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 
PERIOD FOR NOW. -MW

.AVIATION...

FOR KPUB AND KALS..EXPECT VFR NEXT 24H WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FOR KCOS...SOME LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 
SUNRISE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PRIOR TO SUNRISE...AND AFTER 
THIS MOVES ACROSS FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO NW AND THIS SHOULD DRY 
OUT THE CLOUDS OVER THE KCOS AREA. EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE 
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FCST ONCE MVFR CIGS MOVE OUT OF THE KCOS 
AERODROME REGION. 

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.