HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area SGF

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 07:52:08 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...PEA SIZE HAIL IS OCCURRING IN ALMOST ALL
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THERE STILL COULD BE ON OR TWO STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...BUT MOSTLY
JUST SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END FROM WEST TO
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 BY MIDNIGHT AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 4 AM. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG COULD
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THOUGH.

HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIMIT COOLING THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL COOL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUD COVER
TRENDS AS LOWS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SOME. 

WISE

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

ITS BEEN A COOL AND WET DAY ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WE WILL STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT MAYBE ENOUGH FOR
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP THIS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A FAIRLY NICE DAY ON
TAP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE AND SUNSHINE WILL
RETURN. THE MODELS DIFFER A BIT FOR THE STORM CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE THIS SYSTEM STAY ALONG
THE GULF COAST REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS A LITTLE MORE NORTH
GRAZING BY THE SOUTHERN OZARKS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW
WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF UNTIL
THE MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GRIFFIN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PLACE FROM LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST WILL
SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY. A RETURN FLOW AND PASSING UPPER RIDGE OUT OF
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MONDAY FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. 

THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE DETAILS. HOWEVER OVERALL THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1152 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS (JLN/SGF/BBG)...RATHER VARIABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. STRATUS CONTINUES TO WOBBLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
REESTABLISH AN UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PLATEAU...RESULTING IN IFR AT
SGF. THIS FLOW TENDS TO BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR BBG...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED GOING MVFR CIGS. JLN IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE.
SURROUNDING OBS INDICATE IFR AND HAVE CONTINUED...HOWEVER IF SKIES
CLEAR...FOG IS POSSIBLE...THUS HAVE LOWERED VIS EXPECTATIONS
CLOSER TO SUNRISE IF CLEARING IS ACHIEVED. ALL SITES WILL CLEAR
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

GAGAN

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ070-071-
     079>083-090>092-094>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.