HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area SGX

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 13:26:26 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PST THU FEB 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG GUSTY 
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING THROUGH AND BELOW THE 
PASSES AND CANYONS...CONTINUING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. WARMER 
FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN...THEN COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WEST COAST. 
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER AND WEST OF THE 
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. WARMER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER 
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW 
YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE SAN DIEGO AND IMPERIAL 
COUNTY BORDER. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF 
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN 
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FT. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH IN THE 
MOUNTAINS AND LESS THAN ONE-TENTH INCH IN THE DESERTS. ONE TO TWO 
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FT.

AS THE LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...NORTHEAST 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE 
THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PICKING 
UP AGAIN THIS EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AND 
BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA 
MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY BREEZY 
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY 
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS WELL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON. WARMER TODAY AND FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SWING THROUGH THE WEST COAST 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER 
WEATHER. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP BY SATURDAY 
MORNING AS A COASTAL EDDY SPINS UP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON 
SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY 
CONDITIONS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. LOCAL GUSTY WEST 
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES 
THROUGH.

WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. PERIODS OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND 
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.

.AVIATION...
151000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH 
INTO NORTHERN BAJA THIS MORNING...SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING...BUT STILL 
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. BKN-OVC BASES 
3-5K FT MSL ARE EXPECTED WHERE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS OCCUR. 
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BECOME FEW-SCT AS SHOWERS END. OVER THE 
NORTHERN MTN PASSES AND THE SANTA ANA MTS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20-35 KT 
WILL INCREASE AFT 1200Z THIS MORNING WITH LLWS AND MOD/SEV 
TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER THE INLAND EMPIRE. BETWEEN 1600-1900Z 
TODAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SURFACE AT AIRPORTS BELOW CANYONS 
AND PASSES...SUCH AS KSNA AND KONT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. 

MTS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A 
FREEZING LEVEL HOVERING AROUND 3000 FT MSL. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE 
COULD CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 
VIS WILL BE OBSCD WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT MTS. 

DESERTS...LOCAL NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 25-35 KT AFT 1800Z THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THURSDAY FOR THE            
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY              
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THURSDAY FOR THE APPLE 
     AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR THE 
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY             
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE     
     INLAND EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.