HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area STO

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 07:44:31 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 PM PST WED FEB 15 2012

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH THIS EVENING.. FARTHER INTO SOCAL 
AS EPAC RIDGING BUILDS INLAND OVER THE PAC NW.  STRONG N-S SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BECOME MORE E-W ORIENTED 
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE GREAT BASIN. AS A 
RESULT...EXPECT INCREASING WIND IN THE SIERRA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL 
GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH POSSIBLE OVER RIDGES AND THROUGH FAVORABLE 
ORIENTED CANYONS. WINDS IN THE VALLEY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 KTS 
OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS PARTIAL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER 
OCCURS. DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED 10 TO 20 DEGREES FROM 24 HRS 
PREVIOUS AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO KEEP T-TD SPREADS FAR 
ENOUGH TO HINDER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. 

HEIGHTS RISE OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING 
CONTINUES TO BUILD INLAND. WINDS DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. AMS WARMS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 
CENTRAL VALLEY WELL INTO THE 60S WITH 40S TO 50S IN THE 
MOUNTAINS...50S TO AROUND 60 FOR THE FOOTHILLS. SOME VALLEY FOG 
LIKELY TO RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO IMPACT INTERIOR NORCAL LATE FRIDAY 
INTO SATURDAY. MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN FOCUSED IN THE PAC NW AS THE 
SYSTEM BRUSHES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE 
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. LOW PWS SUPPORT ANOTHER LIGHT 
QPF EVENT.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRACK AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE SIERRA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS COLD
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW SNOW LEVELS BUT WILL LACK A STRONG MOISTURE
TAP AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. 

ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER TYPE LOW TRACKS OVER THE SIERRA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
AND POSSIBLE MORE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. RIDGING SHOULD
BRING A BREAK LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH DRY AND MILDER
WEATHER RETURNING. EK

.AVIATION...
N WINDS CONT IN THE VLY BUT HAVE LESSENED CONSIDERABLY. WIND SPEEDS 
FOR TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY 5-15 KTS CURRENTLY AND EXPECTED TO BE 
5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON BCMG LGT AND VRB AFT 0Z 
FRIDAY. MTN WIND GUSTS 25-50 KTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING 
TOMORROW. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HRS.   JBB 

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...