HAMweather.com Area Forecast Discussion for County Warning Area TBW

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 12:49:58 GMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
BROAD MID LVL TROUGH ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN CONUS CONTINUES TO 
MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT 
BOUNDARY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL 
PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS THE FRONT AS 
LOOSING MUCH OF ITS ENERGY AROUND THE FL BIG BEND WITH LOW-END 
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/30 POPS FOR LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES...AND SLIGHT 
CHANCES/20 POPS FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. 
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS NORTHERN 
FL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCES FRI AFTERNOON...40-30 
PERCENT NORTH-TO-SOUTH. 

GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE 
AREA WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CARRY MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF 
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES...AND WAIT 
FOR UPCOMING GUIDANCE BEFORE GOING ANY HIGHER. 

BY SATURDAY...A DEEP TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS DRAGS A 
SFC LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE GULF COAST 
AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. POPS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN ARE 
DEPICTED AS HAVING BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES. BUT 
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO 
THE AREA...WILL EXTEND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DOWN TO THE 
SARASOTA-DESOTO-HIGHLANDS BORDER FOR SAT LATE AFTERNOON.   

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE S/SW...AND BACKING A LITTLE TO THE 
SE ON SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS COULD BECOME BREEZY 
AT TIMES WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT COOL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE INCREASING 
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST 
AND WARM. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 
80S...AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.       

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... 
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTUAL TRACK...SPEED...AND STRENGTH OF A 
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  
16/12Z ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 17/00Z GFS 
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH A 
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  CHANCE A FEW 
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA IN REGION OF BEST 
DYNAMICS.  U/L SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
PUSHING OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY 
WITH DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION.  SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH RETURN 
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  TEMPERATURES 
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MODERATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LCL IFR 
VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY PGD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
THURSDAY WITH MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND 100 TPA TO SRQ.  SKIES SHOULD 
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY FROM PGD TO FMY.  

.MARINE...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND THROUGH FRI AS A WEAK FRONT 
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT 
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN AN APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS 
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND CONDITIONS APPROACHING ADVISORY 
LEVELS BY SAT EVENING. LATEST WNAWAVE MODEL DATA SEEMS TO BE SLOW TO 
REACT TO THE FROPA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPICTING WAVE HEIGHTS A 
LITTLE TOO LOW IN CONTRAST TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND FIELD. 
THEREFORE...FORECAST WILL CARRY HIGHER SEAS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
AND INTO THE EVENING...THEN REACHING THE HIGHEST VALUES THROUGH 
SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE 8 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE AND WINDS IN THE 20-25 
FEET RANGE. 

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SUBSIDING ON MONDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.       

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. 

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  64  78  66 /  20  30  30  30 
FMY  83  63  81  66 /  10  20  30  30 
GIF  81  60  79  63 /  20  30  30  30 
SRQ  78  64  76  68 /  10  30  30  30 
BKV  80  58  78  63 /  20  40  30  30 
SPG  76  64  77  68 /  20  30  30  30 

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.